Browsing by Author "Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja"

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10 years of Nordic defence: the correlation between perception of threat and ambition for defence cooperation in the Nordic Council 2009-2018
(Tartu Ülikool, 2019) Henell, Elis; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Defence and security have during the last decade become an increasingly important part of the Nordic cooperation that traditionally has been defined mainly by the absence of these questions on the agenda. In my thesis I will look at ambition for Nordic defence cooperation and how the changed perception of Russia after 2014 has affected the ambition for it in the Nordic Council. Theoretically I rely on Stephen Walt’s Balance of Threat theory with the expectation that more perceived threat leads to more alignment. The choice of the neorealist approach is justified by first looking at the core of why nations align and then conceptualizing the Nordic cooperation in defence as a form of alignment. The empirical part of the research consists of a cross-temporal comparison of ambition for Nordic defence cooperation in the international debates of the annual sessions of the Nordic Council before (2009-2013) and after (2014-2018) the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, which has been defined as a turning point in the Nordic and European security environment. This turn should imply a higher perception of threat in the debate. Using thematical grouping of the data I identify patterns that help me measure the correlation between perception of threat and ambition for Nordic defence cooperation in Nordic parliamentary cooperation. By observing the data, I show that the level of perceived threat for the period 2009-2013 is low and the ambition for regional defence cooperation is high, while the level of perceived threat 2014-2018 is high but the ambition for regional defence cooperation low. I also present other variables inductively drawn from the data that might explain the changes in the level of ambition better than the changed level of threat.
Application of the European Union's human security approach to the European Union Monitoring Mission to Georgia
(Tartu Ülikool, 2016) Apriashvili, Mariam; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Vits, Kristel, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
This Master’s thesis explores the way in which human security agenda has found its way into the security practices of an emerging security actor, the European Union (EU). In this context, while the work introduces the human security concept in the realm of the EU, in particular in the framework of Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), the European Union Monitoring Mission in Georgia (EUMM Georgia) is being examined as a case where human security is put in practice. Thesis puts forward a set of three interrelated questions: Firstly, whether human security approach was followed by the EU in EUMM Georgia and secondly, how it was implemented. For this purpose, the six principles of human security, defined by Madrid Report of 2007 will be scrutinized and will be used as an indicator to measure practical implementation of the EU human security approach on the ground, in case of EUMM Georgia. And thirdly, it goes on to explore what was the rationale for the EU to opt for this approach. In order to account for this latter, the thesis applies both Constructivist and Rationalist theories along the human security concept in the framework of the EU’s CSDP, and argues that it is the combination of rationalist calculation and considerations of appropriateness that leads the EU to adopt a human security approach in CSDP, in this case in EUMM Georgia.
"Be ready to defend to the best of your ability." Motivations of women to join civil defence: the case of Estonia and the Naiskodukaitse (Women’s Voluntary Defence Organization)
(Tartu Ülikool, 2023) Clemente, Cristina; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Critical scenarios have determined a rekindled interest in civil defence in recent years. In particular, Estonia has registered an exponential increase among women interested in becoming members of Naiskodukaitse, a women's voluntary defence organization. Against this background, this study suggests a different approach that goes beyond the mere historical perspective of the phenomenon. The aim is to investigate motivations that influence women nowadays to consider becoming members of these types of organizations. In order to find the appropriate approach, I adopted a sociological approach to study the phenomenon and formulate adequate policies to implement women's role in the defence sector or address further issues. Women are interested in contributing to their country's national security, but not by undertaking a military career, but rather by searching for different opportunities, more focused on the immediate outcome that their commitment to the organization can generate. The aim of this study is to investigate at what motivates women to join volunteer defense organizations. The research is based on the Estonian Naiskodukaitse, a volunteer defense group. The research design is a single case study, and data is gathered through interviews and an open-ended questionnaire. A qualitative approach is used to analyze the data. The explorative nature of the study corresponds to the qualitative approach that the researcher intends to employ. The study defines volunteer female defense groups, the responsibilities and services they perform, and how they vary from military forces. Furthermore, the study addresses how women are positioned in security studies, providing an overview of their transition from passive security consumers to active security consumers.
Becoming a geopolitical actor: the discursive construction of the European Union by European Commission during 2021–2023
(Tartu Ülikool, 2024) Piiskop, Liisa; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, launched in February of 2022, has directed international relations and the European Union to a new era, inviting discussions about the EU’s identity and global role. Through resolute action among its member states, the EU has made significant strides in establishing itself as a prominent player in geopolitics. This geopolitical turn challenges established notions of the EU’s international identity as a “civilian” or “normative” power and, coinciding with a “militarization” of the EU, the idea of European integration as a peace project. Against this backdrop, the aim of this thesis is to find out if and how the war has impacted the discursive geopolitical turn of EU’s identity. It specifically explores the construction of the EU’s international identity and, more specifically, whether it has reinforced the geopolitical turn. As academic literature demonstrates, identity is a dynamic construct that is continuously modified by speech and interaction rather than a static trait. Discursive activities, such as the re-articulation of an identity in the context of a significant event or change in context, are crucial in forming and altering identity, serving as a potent instrument in identity studies, including the study of the EU’s international identity. Analyzing 267 political speeches by the Commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, this study employs both corpus analysis and critical discourse analysis (CDA) to detect changes in the discourse from a time period of one year pre-war to one year into the war. The research reveals a strategic depiction of "self" (EU) as a bearer of democracy contrasted against the "other" (Russia and Belarus), framed as aggressors. The findings underscore a narrative shift from global concerns, as they were characteristic of the EU’s international identity, to themes of security, defence, and geopolitical dynamics, particularly emphasizing strengthened alliances, notably with the US, and a push towards strategic autonomy. This shift is marked by an increased focus on borders, military aspects and diplomatic relations. Together, these features and renewed emphasis on geopolitical identity markers suggest a strengthening of the geopolitical identity of the EU. Furthermore, the study discusses the implications of this re-articulation of the EU’s identity into a more geopolitical actor, suggesting that the discursive shifts triggered by the war catalyzed a more autonomous EU stance, diverging from its traditionally civilian-focused identity. With these findings, the thesis contributes to the broader discussion on how significant international events reshape identities and policy orientations, providing insights that are crucial for policymakers and scholars in understanding the evolving nature of the EU in the face of crises.
Beyond ecclesiastical nationalism: agency and selfhood in the Orthodox world – the constellations of contemporary Macedonia and Moldova
(Tartu Ülikool, 2019) Kolov, Bojidar; Kilp, Alar, juhendaja; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Against the background of an innate imperative for ecclesial unity, the intensifying antagonistic plurality of the Orthodox Church poses an array of research questions. The continuous social relevance of Orthodoxy, as well as the general entanglement of political and religious identities in a number of societies make these research questions not only relevant to theology and ecclesiology, but also to political studies. The current account aims to address one of the fundamental problems of modern Orthodox ecclesiastical governance and that is the issue of Selfhood and agency. Previous literature has linked Orthodox jurisdictional subjectivity with the advent of the modern nation state. Indeed, the institutional architecture of the majority of Orthodox Churches today is almost inextricably connected with this paradigm of political and social organization. However, the link between nation and state on one hand and ecclesiastical particularity on the other proves to be far from universal. In the light of unexplainable from nation-centric perspective cases, the current study attempts to provide an alternative ontology for ecclesiastical Selfhood and agency. The scope of the project covers the contemporary ecclesiastical dynamics in two comparable constellations, these of Macedonia and Moldova. Based on constructivist and poststructuralist theoretical and methodological premises, the study focuses on the discursive practices related with the establishment and/or contestation of ecclesiastical institutions. The analytical comparison between the public discourses, produced by the competing jurisdictions in the two countries, outlines three key articulations crucial for the emergence of particular Orthodox Churches. A nascent ecclesiastical Subject is constructed through an identification with a radical social object/discourse, by articulation of a representative role vis-à-vis certain social group, and by narrating the existing power relations as unjust and/or meaningless. If generalized, these findings put forward a new perspective on the emancipatory and hegemonic practices, which modern Orthodox ecclesiastical governance involves.
Beyond neutrality: the role of identity in Irish defence and security policy
(Tartu Ülikool, 2024) Deasy, Cian; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Yüksel, Izzet Yalin, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
What lies behind Ireland’s anomalous approach to its defence and security policy? Why does a state which is otherwise politically aligned and integrated with its regional neighbours behave so differently, investing and cooperating to such limited extents, where defence and security are concerned? This is a question which has not garnered significant academic attention, and one the body of scholarship produced to date has struggled to answer. This study departs from the approach of previous scholarship in examining Irish behaviour through the lens of ontological security. By analysing elite Irish discourse on defence and security between 2014 and 2023, it illustrates the link between Irish identity constructions and policymaking in the defence and security sphere, highlighting the discursive ‘field of action’ generated for elite decision-makers by Ireland’s sense of self as an actor in the international community. It alleges that this sense of self perceives Ireland as a peace promoter and moral authority, one which is not entirely included in the Western European security space, and that such an identity precludes Ireland from shaping its policy in a manner similar to that of other Western European states. Prior to 2022, Irish ontological security was preserved through the maintenance of low military capability and limited international cooperation: from 2022, amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Irish ‘field of action’ is found to have partially expanded to incorporate greater scope for investment and cooperation, but with the underlying identity tenets remaining the same.
The challenges of change in foreign policy - norms and the EU's policy learning in the European Neighbourhood Policy
(Tartu Ülikool, 2019) Wheeler, David; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
The lack of fundamental change within the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) seems puzzling given both the policy’s lack of success and the self-initiated opportunities the European Union (EU) had to change the policy to address this lack of success – namely the major reviews of the policy ending in 2011 and 2015. This study seeks to understand this continuity from a perspective that has yet to be taken within the scholarship on the ENP – that of learning. The behavioural perspective of organizational learning, particularly the concepts of ‘single loop’ and ‘double loop’ learning, is taken as the foundation of the approach. Noting that the description of the lack of fundamental change in organizational learning theory has much in common with the identity-preservation behaviours described by ontological security, and with the objective to connect organizational learning approaches to the study of the EU’s external action, a synthesis of organizational learning with ontological security is proposed. This synthesis provides organizational learning with a deeper, identity-based explanation for why fundamental learning does not occur even when it might be expected. Using this framework, and focusing upon DG NEAR (as the ‘organization’ most responsible for the ENP) and the reviews (as the clearest opportunities for learning), the lack of fundamental learning and, thus, the current state of the policy, can be explained as a series of learning opportunities in which fundamental learning was expected, but never implemented. This is because fundamental learning would have required the EU to change behaviours that can be connected to its identity as a promoter of values/norms, thereby constituting a challenge to its ontological security. The findings provide insight into the policy’s historical lack of success with an empiricallybased account of the EU’s challenge in changing it, providing more detail to the existing literature regarding the continuity of the policy. In doing so, the findings highlight the role of identity-preservation concerns as a factor in fundamental learning outcomes with respect to the EU’s external action, and therefore contribute to a deeper understanding of the EU’s policy learning processes.
The change and continuity in the securitization of EU energy narrative(s) and policy in light of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine 2014-2022: the case of the European Parliament
(Tartu Ülikool, 2023) Jiang, Wen-Qing; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Pożarlik, Grzegorz, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
The research aims to examine the securitization process of energy policy that has been addressed in the European Parliament debates in light of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2022 while accessing the correlation between the securitization process and the concept of resilience. Bearing in mind that the Union has long been highly dependent on external energy supply, especially Russian-produced fossil fuels such as gas and oil. Apart from the energy dependency, the ideological differences between Russia and the EU consequently influence their geopolitical ambitions, projects, energy narratives, and policies. Such energy dynamics have long existed since the 2000s and have deteriorated. The time frame of the research was set from 2014 to 2022 to trace the progression of the change and continuity of narratives since the Annexation of Crimea in 2014. The research focuses heavily on the inter-subjective dynamics among the political groups during parliamentary debates, which consequently influenced the framing of threats, especially Russia, as a threat to European energy security. Therefore, the research set up a background of a contested European Union regarding the perspectives on Russia’s role in European energy governance and the exercise of energy policies, despite the European Commission’s effort to provide consistent energy narrative and policies. The research findings identified that four narratives tend to be present in terms of energy/energy security during parliamentary debates. In addition, the EU energy discourses and policies tend to lean towards resilient-oriented measures such as fundamental and sustainable change of policies that correspond with the Union’s climate-neutral goals. With regards to the four narratives produced, on the one hand, the EPP, S&D, Renew and Greens/EFA groups shared a similar narrative of Russia as a malign influence on European energy security since 2014; on the other, was the Eurosceptic Left and ID group that would instead go ‘business as usual’ with Russia. Nevertheless, the severity of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 had the entire parliament taken aback while voicing support for implementing emergency measures, highlighting the technical aspect of the securitization process instead of the ‘speech act’. Lastly, the research concluded that despite innate internal contestation, the European Parliament can act as a securitizing actor when undergoing exogenous shock. Moreover, the narrative produced by the European Commission and Parliament can have an interlocking effect enhancing the Union’s decision-making process.
Communicating the European Union in Crisis: European Commission crisis communication and its consequences for reputation and legitimacy
(Tartu Ülikool, 2018) Pai, Tiina; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Vanamölder, Kaarel, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
The past decade has been crisis ridden for the EU. In addition to the immediate influence, crises damage reputation and legitimacy, by crisis communication this harm can be alleviated. EC, the communicator on the supranational level, acting in the name of the whole EU, has had to deal with these situations. This thesis views the crisis communication strategies EC uses in three recent and prominent crises: Greek government-debt crisis, migration crisis and Brexit. Adding the tools offered by situational crisis communication theory by Coombs and image repair theory by Benoit to the European studies’ general framework, the author, using the methods of discourse analyses, researches EC crisis communication and the social consequences of it for the reputation and legitimacy of EC and EU. By analysing 231 speeches by the President of the EC and by the commissioners responsible for the most affected policy field in the crisis, the crisis communication strategies are identified. Looking at media response and public opinion, the findings suggest that crisis communication contributes to shaping the context within which the social consequences regarding reputation/legitimacy can occur.
Deterrence-terrorism: the use of strategic terrorism as the basis of deterrence in theory and in the case of Hezbollah-Israel, 2006-2020
(Tartu Ülikool, 2020) Elgindy, Mahmoud Ahmed; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Maskaliūnaitė, Asta, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
This thesis seeks to examine the dynamics of strategic terrorism when implemented in the pursuit of deterrent, rather than compellent effects. In doing to so, it addresses a gap in the theoretical literature concerning terrorism as a coercive strategy. The focus of existing studies on compellent terrorism, to the neglect of its potential for deterrence, results in an inability to understand how terrorism may be used to sustain the status-quo. This theoretical consideration is reflected in an empirical case of deterrence, as identified in inductive studies. The study of Hezbollah’s strategy of deterrence vis-à-vis Israel in the years since 2006 features both threats of terrorist violence by Hezbollah, and military restraint on part of Israel. Against this background, the aims of this thesis are twofold; theoretically, to examine if threats of terrorism can be used to pursue deterrent effects. In other words, to conceptually distinguish the novel subtype deterrence-terrorism, to stand alongside existing nuclear and conventional deterrence. To assess the analytical utility of the concept, this study seeks to examine if deterrence-terrorism can explain the deterrent dynamic between Hezbollah and Israel from 2006-2020. This thesis seeks to solve the question of terrorism’s deterrent potential through theory building in the form of deductive reasoning. Herein a novel concept; deterrence-terrorism is proposed to clarify the implications of existing theory in cases where threats are formed through terrorism. In this study, terrorism, defined here as violent, extra-normal and symbolic actions, was applied to the abstract framework of deterrence in accepted theory. Empirically and in pursuit of confirming utility, this concept of deterrence-terrorism was then applied in a theory driven plausibility probe, examining if deterrence-terrorism by Hezbollah has caused military restraint by Israel. This thesis found that the influence of threats through terrorism on the general deterrence practices of forming a credible threat and signalling are sufficient bases for the consideration of deterrence through terrorism as unique type, alongside existing nuclear and conventional architypes. In the case of Hezbollah and Israel from 2006-2020, empirical analysis suggests necessary evidence is present that deterrence-terrorism has caused military restraint in the studied period. As a result, the analytical utility of deterrence-terrorism is confirmed.
Divergent understandings regarding the “strategic autonomy of the European Union”: a result of the plurality of strategic cultures among the member states
(Tartu Ülikool, 2019) Pals, Peeter; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Kuusik, Piret, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
In the recent years, the strategic autonomy of the European Union (EU) has become one of the buzzwords when it comes to the defence cooperation of the EU. However, even though that all EU Member States have agreed with the goal in a way that it can be found in the strategic documents, such as the Global Strategy of the EU, in practice the Member States seem to have somewhat different positions and understandings regarding it when it comes to implementation, yet it has received little scholarly attention. This study aims to tackle this issue and sets out to first, provide empirical insights to map the different understandings in an empirically grounded way and second, explain the occurrence of such differences through the various elements of national strategic cultures. In order to explore this link between the understandings of strategic autonomy and the specifics of national strategic cultures, this study relies on data collected through a series of semi-structured interviews with the security specialists and government officials from five EU Member States that reflect the whole spectrum of Europeanist/Atlanticist divide among the Member States when it comes to strategic orientation. The findings of this thesis show that first, the understandings of strategic autonomy are indeed different among the Member States to a certain extent and second, the differences in understandings and concerns can indeed be explained through the plurality of strategic cultures among the EU Member States. However, adding more nuance to the existing literature highlighting the differences in understandings, this study finds that while there are certain differences in understandings, there are more differences when it comes to fears and concerns regarding the possible outcomes of the goal. While all elements of strategic culture reflect in the understandings of EU (or European) strategic autonomy in a certain way, then the major driver for the division among the Member States is the strategic orientation (Europeanist/Atlanticist divide).
The effectiveness of economic sanctions: the case of Russia’s sanctions against Turkey
(Tartu Ülikool, 2018) Poghosyan, Hasmik; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
The effectiveness of economic sanctions is one of the key issues in current debates in the International Relations (IR) literature on sanctions. A key aspect for the effectiveness of economic sanctions is how to transfer economic pain to coercive power, in particular, how the “sender” might wring concessions from the “recipient” or target, making sanctions an effective foreign policy tool. This study contributes to this debate by demonstrating the relevance of target country vulnerability. This study engages in this debate and explores the factors behind Turkey’s decision to make foreign policy concessions to Russia in the aftermath of a sharp deterioration of relations between two countries. After shooting down Russian SU-24 jet, the diplomatic relations between Turkey and Russia de facto broke down. In regard to this incident, Russia imposed a package of sanctions against Turkey and presented demands, only in case of fulfillment of which Kremlin was ready to restart dialogue with Turkey. Over seven months Ankara rejected to give in any demand required by Moscow, but later Turkish foreign policy behavior towards Russia drastically changed, since Erdogan made substantive foreign policy concessions for the restoration of relations between two countries. For explaining this turnaround in Turkish foreign policy, the mediating role of a target’s susceptibility to coercion – its vulnerability - is brought into view. What explains turnaround of Turkish foreign policy towards Russia is domestic instability and international isolation which intensified Turkey’s “vulnerability” to a high level and made it more susceptible to Russia’s economic pressure. This study establishes that economic sanctions become effective under the condition of high vulnerability which is a function of domestic instability and international isolation. In this way, this study demonstrates that economic sanctions alone do not determine the effectiveness, but have to be matched with a context in which the economic pain they inflict can also translate into political pressure.
The emergence of cyber security as a national security policy concern in NATO member states
(Tartu Ülikool, 2024) Kuus, Anna; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Carmichael, Logan Emily; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
As everyday technologies progress at a fast pace, new risks and threats evolve for the users and operators of technology. Today, cybersecurity is a common concern for basically all states –however, this has not always been the case. The concern with cybersecurity has emerged gradually over time, with ever more states becoming concerned. Against this background, this study sets out to study the proliferation of cybersecurity as a policy concern among a more narrowly confined group of states, namely NATO member states. Drawing on the literature on cybersecurity, the study identifies at least four factors that might explain the emergence of cybersecurity as a national policy concern. Whereas some explanations, such as norm diffusion and economic considerations have been already studied, explanations such as policy diffusion and innovations in the field of science and technology have not been widely studied. Therefore, the empirical part of the study analyses which of these factors explains the proliferation of cybersecurity as a policy concern. This research traces different factors for policy concern emergence, by applying document analysis on national cybersecurity strategies and conducting interviews with 14 experts and policymakers involved in cybersecurity policy formulation and implementation, including policymakers involved in developing the first national cybersecurity strategies. By assessing the theories of policy change, norm and policy diffusion, this study lists a set of possible causes for policy concern emergence in the field of cybersecurity. The results of this study indicate that the emergence of cybersecurity across three selected states was mostly driven by policy diffusion among states and innovations in the field of science and technology, firstly – if a state has adopted a policy as a result of emerging policy concern in a region or an international organization, then a policy concern emerges in other states; secondly, if a state sees an increase in developments in the field of science and technology, then cybersecurity as a policy concern emerges. This research demonstrates how different aspects and factors for policy formulation are considered and why some considerations are deemed more critical for national security than others.
European Union small member states in the United Nations Security Council: a case of Europeanization of foreign policy
(Tartu Ülikool, 2021) Khrapunenko, Mariia; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Representation on the international arena has always been important for the European Union (EU), especially when it comes to international organizations as they are the main field for global decision-making. Particularly interesting has been EU representation in the United Nations (UN) and more specifically in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), where only nation-states can be formal members. The restrictive for the EU legal set-up of the UNSC has left only one possibility for the EU voice to be heard – through its Member States (MSs). However, the questions remain: what MS is more likely to informally represent the EU positions, what causes it and to what level the MS will do it. Using the institutional-constructivist approach to the phenomenon of socialization. This thesis seeks to explain the difference in levels of informal representation of the EU positions aiming to find out what role the state size has on the level of socialization that leads to the informal representation of the EU positions. The study draws on original data from 10 interviews with the representatives of the selected EU MSs delegations (Portugal 2011-2012, Germany 2011-2012, Germany 2019-2020, and Estonia 2020-2021) to the UNSC to, first, establish the level of socialization for each of them and understand what differences (if any) there are between them. Second, it seeks to establish what scope of interest each of the selected countries had prior to joining the UNSC and build a link between the level of socialization and the respective state size. Then, the research aims to find out what level of informal representation of the EU positions each of the EU MS in the focus of this research had. This study arrives at two key findings. First, the results show that the state size does not have effect on the level of socialization of the EU MS. Second, the level of informal representation of the EU positions does not depend on the level of socialization that the EU MSs had prior to representing their national positions. It is apparent that the level of representation of the EU positions is largely defined by the importance that the EU MS attributes to representing the EU. Therefore, this thesis opens prospects for further studies of the topic.
The European Union's quest for strategic autonomy: divergence of understandings across member states and its implications for cooperation
(Tartu Ülikool, 2019) Libek, Elina; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Kuusik, Piret, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Being present in the European Union’s (EU) strategic documents and commonly used in political statements, “strategic autonomy” has become one of the latest catchphrases in European security and defence discourse. The ambiguous nature of this concept has led to concerns that it may have different meanings among the EU member states and the lack of common understanding may hamper the practical cooperation working towards this end. Informed by constructivist theorising on meaning-making across national contexts and the notions of constructive/destructive ambiguity, this thesis seeks to substantiate the debates on European strategic autonomy by providing empirical insights to it. The aims of this study are twofold. Drawing on original data from 23 expert interviews, first, in order to establish the empirical picture of the diversity of meanings of the notion of EU strategic autonomy, it maps out the national understandings of the concept in France, the Netherlands, Germany, Finland, and Estonia. Second, in order to assess the implications of the multiplicity of interpretations for cooperation, the study then explores how the actors themselves perceive the issue of diverging understandings in the context of practical cooperation taking place in the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) framework. As regards to the multiple understandings of the concept of strategic autonomy, the findings of this study show that the core meaning of it is similar for all the analysed member states, that being “Europe’s capacity to act as Europe in security and defence related matters”. However, divergences emerge in relation to more reflective issues, such as aiming for self-sufficiency or seeing gradual capability development as an end in itself; the degree of exclusivity implied by this ambition; and whether a European drive in the direction of autonomy is perceived as a potential threat to transatlantic values. In terms of the impact of the multiplicity of interpretations on practical cooperation, the second key finding of this study suggests that the ambiguity of the notion of strategic autonomy is not necessarily hindering to practical cooperation that is taking place in the EU frameworks aimed to support this ambition. Rather, the policy-makers across the member states perceive the cooperative action itself as something that leads to more clarity and eventually helps to pinpoint the collective understanding of the goals to be achieved.
Europeanisation of foreign policy in the Western Balkans: explaining the change in North Macedonia’s alignment with the EU sanctions against Russia (2014-2022)
(Tartu Ülikool, 2024) Bobrovnikova, Ekaterina; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Braghiroli, Stefano, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
This thesis investigates the puzzling change in North Macedonia’s alignment with the EU’s restrictive measures against Russia between 2014 and 2022, which diverged from the stable positions of other countries in the Western Balkan region. Drawing on the Europeanisation literature, the thesis tests three alternative causal mechanisms to explain North Macedonia’s change in alignment: external incentives model, role-playing, and thick socialisation. By applying the process-tracing method, the thesis reaches a conclusion that role-playing was the most likely mechanism behind North Macedonia’s change in alignment. North Macedonia demonstrated partial ambiguity of alignment process, meaning that no tangible reward was provided by the EU in exchange for sanctions alignment and also no full match in norms and identities was present to support such action. Moreover, the automatic nature of CFSP alignment was found due to previous high rates of alignment, together with political actors’ references to North Macedonia’s social role as a candidate country in justifying alignment with EU sanctions against Russia. In light of the empirical evidence, this thesis concludes that the role-playing mechanism is the most likely explanation. The findings demonstrate that in the context of foreign policy Europeanisation, role-playing, in a characteristic instrumental form, can drive alignment of candidate countries.
Examining variation in counter-terrorism listing regimes
(Tartu Ülikool, 2017) Worth, Andrew; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
The exit of the United States of America from the intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty: explanation through realism and constructivism
(Tartu Ülikool, 2022) Laugmaa, Andra; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
In 2019 the United States confirmed its withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (hereafter INF) with the explanation that Russia violated the INF Treaty by developing intermediate-range missiles. According to the INF Treaty, both parties had to eliminate and ban the development of intermediate-range missiles while being a part of this treaty. The objective of this thesis was to explore the United States’ decision to withdraw from the INF Treaty even though the treaty had served the interests of the US for several decades, and afterwards find out which theory, realism, or constructivism, explained the reasoning of this withdrawal better. Analysing the statements of withdrawal through two different International Relations theory will help to understand the different aspects that are connected to the withdrawal. The main reason is to fully understand which theory explains the reasoning of the United States to withdraw from the INF Treaty better. The findings were supported by statement, speeches, and reports by the United States’ government officials who stated different reasons why the United States decided to withdraw from the INF Treaty. The analysis in the empirical section of this thesis showed that the United States’ reasoning to withdraw from the INF Treaty was mainly driven by the realistic logic. The United States was mostly concerned with its security interests, balance of power, and post-treaty arms race. These all fall into the category of realism. In contrast, the arguments related to the constructivist logic were less frequent and central.
Exit, voice and loyalty as responses to dissatisfaction with international regimes; comparing responses of Turkey and Poland to Istanbul Convention
(Tartu Ülikool, 2022) Sarioglu, Emel Almira; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Cooperation in anarchic international politics has been one of the most widely debated topics in the International Relations discipline. While some scholars investigated the underlying motives to understand the cooperation (Keohane, 1984; Galbreath, 2009), others tried to analyze the incentive of not participating (Slapin, 2009; Lavelle, 2007; von Borzyskowski & Vabulas, 2019). While trying to understand the incentive of not participating, each researcher identified one and repeated motive; dissatisfaction. According to Hirschman (1970) actors would respond to dissatisfaction in three different ways; an actor can exit , it can voice its dissatisfaction or it can simply remain loyal . In this study, Hirschman’s theory will be adapted to international relations to understand the variety of responses with dissatisfied regimes. This study puts out the hypothesis that type of response will be affected by the level of combined costs of anticipated audience cost and reputation cost. This hypothesis is tested by conducting comparative research between Turkey and Poland in the context of dissatisfaction with the Istanbul Convention. The analysis shows that a ‘high’ level of combined costs will lead states to make milder decisions while still expressing their dissatisfaction, such as ‘voice’ whereas, te ‘low’ or ‘medium’ level of combined costs suggests that states are more likely to take more drastic actions such as ‘exit’. This result of the study helps researchers to identify reasons that lead states to respond in varying ways to international regimes, even though they are considered as ‘golden standards’ for every state just like the IC (Amnesty International, 2021b).
Explaining neutrality: the cases of Turkmenistan and Ukraine
(Tartu Ülikool, 2018) Poliakova, Daria; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Neutrality has always brought attention of scholars and politicians as well. Recent events in Ukraine and further debates on Ukraine’s alignment status have once again sparked interest to exploring this concept and the reasons for a state to adopt a neutral stance. The aim of this study is to contribute to the growing researches on neutrality in international politics by exploring particular explanations for different forms of neutrality. For this purpose, it conceptually differentiates forms of neutrality according to their degree of institutionalization, i.e. permanent neutrality and non-alignment, and explains the factors leading states to adopt one form or the other. Based on existing theories of alignment behavior, the thesis formulates two explanations of neutral status: a domestic-level explanation and an explanation emphasizing ideational factors. These explanations are then applied to the cases of Ukraine and Turkmenistan. Whereas the former has followed a policy of non-alignment, the latter has adopted a permanently neutral status. Accounting for these differences in neutral status, the study demonstrates the relevance of domestic-level and ideational factors.