Browsing by Author "Reiljan, Andres, juhendaja"

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"Did we go too far?": Post-incumbency electoral performance after partnering with populist radical right in Europe 1999-2023
(Tartu Ülikool, 2024) Astudillo Laureda, Eduardo Alonso; Reiljan, Andres, juhendaja; Mölder, Martin, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
This thesis examines the electoral consequences for the political parties that decided to collaborate in executive coalitions with Populist Radical Right Parties (PRRPs) in Europe. It addresses the need to understand the implications of these political alignments, given the growing frequency of such coalitions. Using a large-N quantitative analysis and linear regression model, this research analyzes electoral data from eleven European countries to explore the strategic implications of coalition formation with PRRPs. Even though the study reveals that there is no consistent impact and direction on overall electoral costs for forming such coalitions, the effect changes depending on a party's position on the left-right spectrum. The thesis finds that right-leaning parties face uncertain immediate electoral fates post-coalition, while left-leaning parties will perceive a negative electoral impact when entering a coalition with PRRPs. The findings have important implications for the study of multi-party competition as they challenge expectations regarding accommodative strategies and the efficiency of the cordon sanitaire. The research highlights the complex dynamics of ideological alignment, voter behavior, and the challenges of balancing core values against the need for strategic coalition-building.
Riikide edukust määravad tegurid noorte välisteadlaste värbamisel - Marie Skłodowska-Curie meetme näitel
(Tartu Ülikool, 2023) Padar, Allan; Reiljan, Andres, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Rahvusvahelisel tasandil konkureerivad riigid üha enam andekate üliõpilaste ja teadlaste nimel, et tagada oma teadussüsteemi kvaliteet ja jätkusuutlikkus. Käesoleva tööga vaatan, mis määrab riikide edukuse noorte teadlaste värbamisel ehk teisisõnu millised tegurid on mobiilsusesse minevate teadlaste jaoks olulised sihtriigi valimisel. Töös on lähemalt vaadatud Marie Skłodowska-Curie programmi raames mobiilseid järeldoktoreid ja nende sihtriikide valikut Horisont 2020 perioodi jooksul. Samuti on lähema vaatluse alla võetud juhtumianalüüsidena Taani ja Itaalia näited, kus lähemalt on uuritud, milliste meetmetega üritatakse värvata noori teadlasi ning millised võiksid olla peamised takistused värbamisel. Nii statistilise analüüsi kui ka juhtumianalüüsi põhjal võib väita, et kõige olulisem sihtriigi valikut mõjutavaks tegur on kohapealse teadussüsteemi kvaliteet ja võimalused teadustöö tegemiseks. Kohapealse kvaliteedi all on mõeldud ka tippteadlaste olemasolu, kelle juurde spetsiifiliselt soovitakse sageli oma teadustööd tegema minna. Juhtumianalüüsides tuli lisaks välja ka karjäärisüsteemi selgus ja läbipaistvus. Järeldoktori periood kestab tavaliselt vaid mõni aasta, mis tähendab, et üsna ruttu tuleb hakata otsima uut töölepingut, mis paneb noortele teadlastele lisapingeid. Kolimine ühest riigist teise on nii ehk naa suur ettevõtmine ning selged võimalused süsteemis ka pärast järeldoktori perioodi edasi töötamiseks, lisavad tõenäosust, et soovitakse riiki teadust tegema tulla. Töö lõpus olen esitanud ka töö tulemusetele tuginevad omapoolsed soovitused riigi ja institutsiooni tasandile, mis võiksid aidata noorte välisteadlaste värbamisel.
Studying the relationship of nationality, ideology and affective polarization: the case of Estonia
(Tartu Ülikool, 2023) Lõoke, Karl; Reiljan, Andres, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Estonia is a strongly divided country on an ethnic basis, in which approximately 24% of the population is Russian-speaking. Competition between ethnic groups for different values, like public resources and political representatives, increases polarization and creates conflicts. In recent centuries, partisan-ideological sorting has taken place, which has increased the strength of political identities and polarized mass political behavior. Such splitting and partisan-ideological sorting lead to affective polarization, which is one of the main concerns that threaten the well-being of democracy. This Master's thesis examines how ethnicity and ideology affect affective polarization in Estonia. In the case of the years selected for analysis, it can be seen that while ethnicity played an important role and was a more important indicator in the study of affective polarization, in 2022 ideological self-placement was the more important factor in affective polarization. In addition, it turned out that the level of affective polarization is higher for people who ideologically place themselves at the extremes than those who place themselves more moderately on one or the other side of the left-right scale. However, from the linear regressions carried out in the work was seen that ideological self-placement, ethnicity and age, and gender used as control variables describe a small variation of affective polarization, therefore, it is important to investigate what other factors are influencing this phenomenon in the future.
Voting along the ethnic line? Ethnic minority voters in Estonia and Lithuania
(Tartu Ülikool, 2023) Cheung, Yan Ming; Reiljan, Andres, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
This thesis aims to examine the prevalence and predictors of minority ethnic voting in Estonia and Lithuania. The empirical results confirm that ethnic minorities in these two countries indeed vote as a homogenous group. Specifically, they are more likely to vote for an ethnic minority party, compared to their ethnic majority counterparts. In addition, it is found that minority ethnic voting is more prevalent in Estonia during the review period. Seeking to identify variables that can predict such ethnic voting behaviour, this thesis also tests two theoretical models, namely the social identity model and the rational model, with individuallevel survey data from Estonia and Lithuania. Drawing upon these two established theoretical models, six hypotheses are formed and tested. The findings reveal that language serves as a powerful predictor of ethnic voting behaviour in both Estonia and Lithuania. Moreover, aside from language, an individual’s placement on the left-right political spectrum appears to be another strong predictor of ethnic voting, with left-wing ethnic minority voters being more likely to cast their vote along ethnic lines. These findings contribute to a better understanding of minority voting behaviour in Estonia and Lithuania.
Winners’ bliss, losers' discontent: the impact of affective polarization on satisfaction with democracy in Europe
(Tartu Ülikool, 2024) Kondratyk, Yurii; Mölder, Martin, juhendaja; Reiljan, Andres, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Scholars worldwide increasingly argue that polarization is intensifying, impacting democratic processes. The issue of increasing polarization has been proven to be concerning and threatening, leading to violent political behavior, as evident in the case of the US Capitol storming. Yet, the academic debate surrounding this issue is itself deeply polarized. There is significant discussion about the nature of polarization, with the affective perspective on polarization emerging as a noteworthy alternative paradigm. Furthermore, there are assertions that claims regarding affective polarization's undermining of democratic norms are speculative. This polarized academic debate, lack of empirical evidence, the primary focus of the research on the US, and the knowledge gap regarding the impact of affective polarization on democratic satisfaction among electoral winners and losers serve as the catalyst for this thesis. This study, examining 33 different elections across 25 European polities, illuminates the contrast in democratic satisfaction between electoral winners and losers. It highlights that electoral losers, who are strongly attached to their party, experience a significant decline in their perception of democracy's function in their country. In comparison, such a tendency was not observed among the winners. However, a thorough exploration of each case demonstrates varying effects of the relationship.