China’s geopolitical stratagem: bridging the post-US withdrawal power gap in South Asia and Middle East through diplomacy with Pakistan and Iran

Abstract

This study explores China’s geopolitical and geoeconomic strategies in South Asia and the Middle East in the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, through diplomatic engagement with Pakistan and Iran. It investigates whether this withdrawal created a regional power vacuum and explores how China’s economic and diplomatic mechanisms aim to fill this gap. This study uses neorealism as a theoretical framework and a Small-N Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD), to analyse China's initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the 25-year strategic agreement with Iran. The findings demonstrate that China strategically integrates economic investments and diplomatic engagements to maximize its regional influence to realign the power dynamics. This study contributes to neorealist theory by illustrating how economic and diplomatic mechanisms are increasingly an important tool for achieving geopolitical objectives.