To deter or not to deter? Understanding the A7 & NATO’s choice for deterrence in the Arctic

Abstract

Deterrence is is a strategy aimed at preventing adversaries from taking unwanted actions by threatening credible consequences. This security practice is well-rehearsed by NATO, but conducting deterrence in the Arctic’s international waters presents a series of questions regarding rational calculations that makes this choice puzzling. This thesis examines the logic behind choosing deterrence in the Arctic post-2022, amidst rising tensions between NATO and Russia, exploring the ritual features of NATO's deterrent discourse. Through Mälksoo’s ritual approach and conducting Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA), the thesis scrutinises the A7 and NATO’s deterrence discourse, particularly focusing on speech acts and their role in generating ontological security and identity. The analysis intersects the ritual approach with critical studies to reveal ritual-like features in NATO's deterrence discourse, characterised by ambiguity, repetition, the underscore of symbolic values, and a lack of specific delineation of red-lines and interests. The thesis concludes that the choice of deterrence in the Arctic post-2022 can be explained to the extent that ritual discourse produces ontological security. Ritual deterrence discourse is pivotal in addressing ontological insecurity among Arctic nations, fostering stability and identity alignment within the alliance, and reinforcing the identity of the A7 by aligning with NATO’s stance. This study emphasises the necessity for clearer messaging, defining specific target audiences and adversaries, and establishing explicit boundaries to mitigate ambiguity. Furthermore, future research should explore the interplay between physical security concerns and deterrence strategies, offering insights into reflexive decision-making and alternative approaches to security challenges.