Paving a new way for regional integration in Central Asia? Analysing Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan relations in the areas of political cooperation and bilateral trade

Abstract

This thesis examines the dynamics of Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan relations concerning political cooperation and bilateral trade, as well as their influence on regional integration in Central Asia. By reviewing political and economic factors that have historically hindered progress in achieving regional integration in Central Asia, the thesis analyses recent development in Kazakhstan- Uzbekistan relations, revealing an emerging positive trajectory in regional cooperation. In doing so, the thesis explores cooperation initiatives and agreements within the realms of political, security, and economic cooperation, with a particular focus on the development of Kazakhstan- Uzbekistan bilateral trade. Based on the findings from this analysis, five key implications concerning regional integration in Central Asia are derived by the end of this thesis. The findings demonstrate a notable shift in bilateral relations since President Mirziyoyev’s assumption of office in Uzbekistan in 2016. This shift has manifested in various aspects, including the signing of the Treaty on the Demarcation of the Kazakh-Uzbek State Border and the Treaty on Allied Relations, the establishment of the Consultative Meetings of Central Asian Heads of State, and a substantial increase in Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan bilateral trade. The analysis demonstrates that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are expanding their cooperation in various dimensions, providing grounds for cautious optimism regarding the future of regional cooperation in Central Asia. Notably, the thesis emphasises the roles played by the new presidents of both states, Mirziyoyev and Tokayev, in promoting a more cooperative approach to foreign policy and regional development across Central Asia. Despite the positive trajectory witnessed in recent years, the analysis highlights persisting challenges in attaining full-fledged integration. These challenges include the dependency of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan on extra-regional countries such as Russia and China. Moreover, Central Asian states display a reluctance towards pursuing integrative steps that involve the creation of binding institutions, preferring loose cooperative frameworks. Overall, the thesis concludes that despite the recent positive developments, regional integration in Central Asia remains at a low to moderate level. Further efforts are needed in order to overcome challenges and propel the region towards robust integration. Central Asian states need to work collectively to achieve more comprehensive integrative steps. While Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan may act as regional leaders in advancing integration efforts, a unified and collaborative approach among all five Central Asian countries is essential to steer the region towards greater cooperation, stability, and prosperity.