The impact of social media use on voter turnout and voting mode preferences: analysis of Estonian Parliament elections in 2019 and 2023

Abstract

This thesis examines the influence of social media exposure on voter turnout and voting mode preferences during the 2019 and 2023 Estonian Parliament elections. Employing cross-sectional post-election survey data, the study evaluates how exposure to political content on social media platforms correlates with voter participation and the choice of voting methods, particularly Internet voting. The research employs multinomial and logistic regression analysis to ascertain the extent to which social media exposure fosters electoral participation and influences decisions to vote online rather than at traditional polling stations. Findings suggest that social media exposure can affect voter turnout numbers. Moreover, this study provides little evidence that this influence depends on the age of the voting-age population. The analysis of social media’s impact on voting mode preferences shows that social media exposure plays a marginal role in voters’ choice of voting mode regardless of their party affiliation. These results indicate that social media has a moderate effect on voting behaviour in Estonia. However, more research is needed to ensure the generalisability of the results.