Sentiments and statecraft: a longitudinal analysis of UK-Russia relations from 2010 to 2023

Abstract

Britain’s foreign policy in recent years has come to be dominated by discussions about Russia. Many decisions are made and framed with this nation in mind, whether over international or domestic security. Despite the attention given by policymakers, there is no prevailing narrative for how the recent period of Tory governance has led to this outcome. The aim of this study is thus to provide a comprehensive overview of UK-Russia relations from the British perspective, covering 2010 to 2023. It follows the shifts in attitudes due to changes in UK Prime Ministers and events. The research shows that the sentiment score has generally fallen from the highs of the early 2010s under David Cameron and is much lower now in the 2020s under Rishi Sunak. Driving these changes are critical junctures, with the most detrimental to relations being the 2022 full-scale invasion. This incident shows that international affairs are, so far, more important for relations than bilateral incidents, like the Salisbury case. Another takeaway is that changes in Prime Minister did shift sentiment significantly, with populists like Boris Johnson showing greater extremes in their attitudes towards Russia than technocrats like Theresa May. These findings are pivotal in understanding the future of British foreign policy in that relations with Russia will depend more on the outcome of these international issues and the character of the Prime Minister. However, at present, projecting the results from this research forward, it appears that relations will remain strained, if not worsen, for the foreseeable future.