Majanduskriiside mõju riikide poliitilistele süsteemidele

Abstract

The role of this paper was to to study the effects of economic crisis on political regimes. The subject is actual, since the European Union and the world in a whole has bsuffered from an economic crisis since the last crisis broke out in the fall of 2008. But the new centre for the crisis seems to be the European Union, since EU members like Greece, Ireland and Spain have already needed or might need international loans to help them serve their loans and the public sector. But the countries governments also need to reform the economy of the countries in order to get the loans. The reforms have caused a great deal of unsatisfaction within the citizens of those countries. There have been riots and protests and the leading parties have lost support to more left-wing and in some cases to right-wing parties. This raises a question, whether the economic crisis can affect the political regimes. In order to study the possible effects, there are six countries (Greece, Spain, Ireland, Brazil, Tunisia, Libya) divided in to three regions. The economic crisis are measured with six different Early Warning Indicators. The aspect of democracy is measured with Economist Intelligent Unit’s Index of Democracy and with Freedom House’s Freedom in the World Index. Statistical analysis is done in order to study and measure the effects of economic crisis on political regimes. Five earlier studys of the same topic have also been taken into account. The final result of the paper is, that the economic crisis in countries, that have had democracy as a political regime twenty years or more, will not cause a separation from democracy, but it can give the citizens the option to vote for a different government with a bit different views (the case with Greece). Regarding the Middle – East, the causes of the Arab Spring were in some cases economical, but there were also several other reasons why the prior political system collapsed. When the new governments of those countries are willing to extend for democracy and when they will get help from outside, the author believes, that democracy will be possible in the Middle – East, since the circumstances are comparable with Greece, Spain and Brazil about twenty five to thirty years ago. The paper gives a base for future studies of these kinds and when monitoring the situation in the Middle – East, it can be ascertain, whether democracy will endure.