Institutsionaalsete tegurite mõju Gruusia, Ukraina ja Kõrgõzstani „värviliste revolutsioonide“ kui poliitilise režiimi siirde läbimurdele

Abstract

The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of the institutional factors on Georgia: Rose Revolution, Ukraine: Orange Revolution and Kyrgyzstan: Tulip Revolution. Color revolutions. According to Thomas Carothers one of the fifth core assumptions that define transition paradigma democratization tends to unfold in a set sequence of stanges. First there occurs the opening: a periood of democratic ferment and political liberization, secondly follows breakthrough: the collpase of the regime and emergence of a new democratic system and then comes consolidation: a slow process which democratic forms are transformed into democratic substance through the reform of state institutions. According to these theory color revolutions considered to be breakthrough. But it is not the first time for Athose countries to became a transition toward democracy. Asi n the early 1990s with the breakup of the Soviet Union and the establishment of 15 post-Soviet republics: Georgia, Ukraine, amd Kyrgyzstan started to move towards democratic regime, but failed amd with breakthrough of the color revolutins gained second chance for regime transition. The main findgs of tha analyze are four main institutional factors that made color revolutions to come true. As in the first cycle of the transiton of the political regime: observed countries did not move towards domocracy, but became patronal presidentialism, where power resides overwhelmingly in a directly elected presidency and, crucially, this power involves not only formal authority, but immense informal authority based on pervasive patron-client relationships and machine politics. Once representatives of the country elite agree on who is likely to win the struggle, they have great incentive once again to rally around the president, so as to avoid falling out of favor with the new president’s team. Eduard Shevardnadze, Leonid Kuchma and Askar Akaye firstly gained the control of the elites, but afterwards failed to save it and color revolutions could happen. The ohter important institutional factor that made Georgia, Ukraiane and Kyrgyzstan move to transtion of politicla regime is wide promoting democracy and democratical institutions by western countries. As the regimes of these post-communist countries were not so autocratic as some of the others post-communist countries: there were some kind of independent media that had very important impact on color revolutions. As all the cases started arter „stolen elections“ the wide and thrustful broadcasting had huge role in mobilizing the community.