Winners’ bliss, losers' discontent: the impact of affective polarization on satisfaction with democracy in Europe

Abstract

Scholars worldwide increasingly argue that polarization is intensifying, impacting democratic processes. The issue of increasing polarization has been proven to be concerning and threatening, leading to violent political behavior, as evident in the case of the US Capitol storming. Yet, the academic debate surrounding this issue is itself deeply polarized. There is significant discussion about the nature of polarization, with the affective perspective on polarization emerging as a noteworthy alternative paradigm. Furthermore, there are assertions that claims regarding affective polarization's undermining of democratic norms are speculative. This polarized academic debate, lack of empirical evidence, the primary focus of the research on the US, and the knowledge gap regarding the impact of affective polarization on democratic satisfaction among electoral winners and losers serve as the catalyst for this thesis. This study, examining 33 different elections across 25 European polities, illuminates the contrast in democratic satisfaction between electoral winners and losers. It highlights that electoral losers, who are strongly attached to their party, experience a significant decline in their perception of democracy's function in their country. In comparison, such a tendency was not observed among the winners. However, a thorough exploration of each case demonstrates varying effects of the relationship.