Creation of multiple scenarios

Abstract

This deliverable D. 4.1 aims to forecast media transformation scenarios in the participating countries and Europe. The aim of the Mediadelcom project was to generate a novel method based on motivational modelling and agent-based simulation for outlining scenarios to predict media-related ROs. As Mediadelcom applied a holistic approach of risks and possibilities concerning mediascapes we constructed multiple scenarios focusing on specific risk areas. Mediadelcom project has two different approaches that are reflected in case study 1 and case study 2. The case study one is a country report (14 all together) that provides critical analysis of the available information and existing knowledge on mediascapes in 4 domians. In the course of testing various approaches for scenario building the consortium finally agreed that scenarios concerning the “wisdom based media governance” will be constructed as traditional narratives. Therefore, we will present verbal narratives on EU level and scenarios produced by each consortium team. These narratives take into account the national context in order to highlight the policy measures that need to be taken in the decision-making process. In the first phase of scenario building, the University of Tartu team also tested the applicability of the agent-based modelling approach to "wisdom-based media governance". However, it was not feasible to create a full list of Corporate and Primary Agents that suit various countries. Also there was not enough data for calibration.