Exploring the reasons behind the EU’s indifferent response towards the Russian engagement in the Western Balkans (2014-2021)

Abstract

This thesis critically examines the European Union's response to Russian engagement in the Western Balkans between 2014 and 2021, a period characterised by the intensification of Russian influence in the region and heightened concern among EU policymakers. While existing scholarship has extensively documented Russia's activities, a significant gap exists in understanding the EU’s countermeasures and the underlying rationale behind its actions. This research addresses this gap by answering two principal questions: How did the EU respond to Russian involvement in the Western Balkans during this period, and what factors influenced this response? Employing Wigell’s democratic deterrence theory and the Risse-Babayan triangular framework, this study conducts a thematic analysis of elite and expert interviews and EU policy documents. The findings indicate that, despite recognising the growing threat of Russian influence, the EU’s response was predominantly reactive and lacked a comprehensive strategic vision. Initiatives such as funding civil society organisations and countering disinformation were often criticised as superficial and inadequate in addressing Russia's multifaceted challenges. The analysis identifies several critical factors that shaped the EU's response. Internally, the EU was preoccupied with crises such as the refugee influx and institutional challenges, which impeded formulating a cohesive and proactive foreign policy. Externally, the EU’s complex and often ambivalent relationship with Russia, particularly in economic and energy dependencies, contributed to a cautious and inconsistent approach to Russian activities in the Western Balkans. Moreover, the EU struggled to effectively counter the indirect and hybrid nature of Russian influence, a challenge compounded by the actions of local political elites in the Balkans who leveraged their relationships with Russia to undermine EU initiatives. This thesis concludes that the EU’s response to Russian engagement in the Western Balkans was shaped by internal distractions, external pressures, and the complexities of managing its relationship with Russia, resulting in a largely reactive and insufficient strategy. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the EU’s role in international relations, particularly in the context of external interference in its neighbouring regions.