The economic and geopolitical weight in the balance of international relations: the case of German-Russian relations

Abstract

Germany’s relationship with Russia has long been regarded as ‘special’ and ‘strategic’, and the evolution of Ostpolitik throughout the years has never lost sight of the original purpose: to increase ties between East and West. The annexation of Crimea marked a turning point in their relations, accounting for a major change in Germany’s Russia policy and opened the debate among scholars about continuity and change in German foreign policy. Drawing upon the theoretical framework of foreign policy change and continuity and based on the liberal and constructivist approaches, the study focuses on economic and geopolitical factors as main forces driving government’s decisions in interstate relations, and it seeks to evaluate their balance in determining Germany’s approaches towards Russia. With the purpose of assessing the nature of Germany’s Russia policy, this dissertation adopts the method of process tracing to investigate the causal mechanism behind Berlin’s responses in three different cases: the signing of Nord Stream deal, the Georgian conflict and the Ukraine crisis. Through the analysis of three focal events, the collection of economic data and the examination of Federal Government’s official statements, the following research argues that the geopolitical factor alone cannot account for the observed change; while the economic dimension plays a major role in determining Germany’s foreign policy outcomes vis-à-vis Russia.