BRICS's role in influencing the state capacity through sanctions-proofing: a comparative analysis of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela (2010–2022)

Abstract

State capacity, a pivotal concept in political science, has garnered extensive scholarly attention for its crucial role in shaping human progress. This thesis explores the origins, significance, and measurement of state capacity, emphasizing the influence of foreign policy tools, particularly economic sanctions. Initially, the study delineates the state's definition, tracing its historical evolution and examining its core components as articulated by Tilly and Mann. It then focuses on state capacity, defined by McAdam et al., as the degree of control state agents exercise over persons, activities, and resources within their territorial jurisdiction. The research investigates how economic sanctions, as a coercive foreign policy tool, impact the state capacity of targeted authoritarian regimes. Given the prevalent use of sanctions by the United States, the study selects three case countries—Russia, Iran, and Venezuela—examining the US-imposed secondary and oil sector sanctions. This focus is justified by the significant role of oil in these countries' economies and the global dominance of the US dollar. State capacity is analyzed through three dimensions: coercive, administrative, and extractive, relevant to the context of authoritarian regimes. The study introduces BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) as an explanatory variable, assessing its potential to mitigate the adverse effects of sanctions and support the sanctioned states' economic resilience. Employing qualitative research methods, including process tracing analysis, the thesis aims to elucidate the causal mechanisms linking sanctions, BRICS' interventions, sanctions-proofing tactics and changes in state capacity. Data sources include OFAC for sanctions, OPEC and Statista for oil market fluctuations, and the World Bank for state capacity indicators. The anticipated outcome suggests that countries with strong economic ties to BRICS will better withstand sanctions, maintaining more stable state capacity compared to those without such support. This research contributes to understanding the interplay between international economic policies and state capacities in authoritarian states.