Learning from external crisis: changes in Estonia’s civil protection framework in the light of Russo-Ukrainian war

Abstract

For Ukraine, the war started in 2014, but only after the large-scale invasion by the Russian Federation did Estonia start to see the bigger picture and think about the protection of its own population within the civil protection framework. The civil protection framework of Estonia has changed due to the war in Ukraine. These changes are the awareness of citizens about the public bomb shelters, sirens, and the support of the internal security volunteers. In this thesis the policy learning framework is used to assess whether a policy change took place and if it was the result of a policy learning in a context of an external crisis. Policy learning does not occur from nowhere, therefore there are triggers that start the process. This study demonstrates that Russia’s use of hybrid measures, what constituted an external crisis for Estonia, contributed to the emergence of policy learning and as a result policy change. The biggest change triggered by the external crisis was the comprehensive model for the evacuation as a part of the civil protection framework. It comprises of a system of notification such as sirens, guidance for evacuation, and safe structures for taking cover. In addition to the aforementioned aspects, the transition to Estonian-language education has also been a significant change as an effort to curb the spread of Russian propaganda. If Estonia was afraid to deal with the previous aspects before the Ukrainian war, expecting a response from the Russian Federation, the situation where the Russian Federation has significantly fewer resources to respond allows for new opportunities. All these factors suggest that the policy learning process has started in Estonia. The findings reveal that perceived as an external crisis, Russian use of hybrid measures in Ukraine triggered policy learning in the area of civil protection in Estonia.